When the world melts…
What will you do?
How are you positioned today?
What have you built and invested in that’ll sustain you?
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but frankly you and I need to get centered. When I say the world melts, I literally mean it. What will you do when we hit a super recession and the humanity itself is forced to reset what it accepts as meaningful and a fair trade for time / effort?
I raise this for discussion, planning, and intentionally to force us to live in the present without any expectation for tomorrow.
Why are we due for a Financial Reset?
We had a global recession (nearly) in 2007–2009 and bought our way out of it. Today we are so over leveraged as a planet against each other, and there is an almost uncanny speeding up of leverage with every person who graduates. You know graduates who accumulate $200k-$400k in student loan debt that they can never escape AND still yet lack any practical real world skills. There is a reason that people are leaving in droves the “common path for career” to leverage the internet for niche offerings. A college degree is hardly valuable in much of today’s world. Yet, here we are … stacking on the debt. Oh, and these same graduates are able to buy a home / apartment with $400k-$500k in loans … Can you imagine having nearly a million dollars in debt at 22?? Yikes
Subtle signs …
Ok, tea leaves time. I work with businesses on the ground level. They are seeing changes in consumer behavior. I work with real estate agents and tehy all say the market is over inflated in Florida, Arizona, and Georgia at least. Those are the markets I am really in tune towards.
People just don’t want to feed this consumer machine of old. Think about it — people are building businesses direct to consumer with minimal staff and taking real money from the largest corporations in the world. This is an awesome evolution, but just an FYI — those super large corporations employ a lot of people that are not equipped to just be jettisoned in the world as solo business owners.
So, I sense an inevitable impact from the finance side, and the social aspects as people are shifting away from consumption and large brands. These are all micro and macro viewpoints. If you don’t agree, we at least can agree that there hasn’t been any market reset in 10 years, and well … one has happened every 10 for nearly a 100 years .. .sooooo we are gonna have one.
If that is certain…
What I plan to do in the face of this fear
Of course I think about financial stability for myself and my family. I look at my behavior and know I’d shutdown specific perks and habits, but those just move the needle 3–7% of my total spend. Not enough to protect me. No, in a super recession we need at least a 30% haircut.
So — is that downsizing my house? Sure … what else? A wholesale cut of eating out — including coffee. That’ll help. What else?
Savings — bolstering savings now would be a powerful safety net. YOU need to have the cash you think you need should life go sideways, not relying on a bank credit line. (We all remember the last crisis when these were pulled from everyone — including GOOD businesses thereby causing a worse situation)
Here I am thinking, what if I sell my home now while the market is frothy and then rent for at least 2 years. I can’t time the market so I would need a period that gives an allowance for market movement.
This plus the pulse I am seeing from a macro and micro point of view, brings this question forward.
Be the best — and network
When the world melts, people will lose their jobs. A lot. So, who will remain employed?
The best will remain employed but not at the company they are at today
A funny thing happens in a melt down, companies that aren’t prepared do wholesale cuts of staff. This classically done to those were good / excellent performers. It’s not personal, it just is #s, and that business you were the best in, well, it’s not gonna be able to carry the dead weight of the rest of the enterprise. So you are out.
A funny thing happens though, if you were the best — the is a company that will seek you out. They KNOW you are the best and will fall over themselves to get you. So you are fine …. except if you aren’t the best, or they don’t know you.
If you aren’t the best — find out what you are the best at, and make that shine like the north star.
How do they KNOW you — here is networking, storytelling, and marketing yourself. It’s vital that the world know your passions, success, and how you can serve them. Give others context, and well, when the time is right they will put you in a spot to succeed beyond your current vision. Even better, you’ll also now doing something you are incredible at and possibly, your love.
Give value today, make moves today
In the end, how you act daily will impact your life an hour from now, a day, a week, and years forward. You must find a balance of happiness, quality, and smarts. If you do — have this plan considered and ready.
You’ll rise to the top where you should, and help bring the world back to balance after it melts.
- see you on the other side of this decade.